2040 Temperature Check on One of North America’s Biggest Watersheds

More water earlier and less snow – the Columbia River Basin’s water health was recently forecast into 2040 as the result of a two-year study across the Washington State Department of Ecology, Washington State University, University of Utah, State of Washington Water Research Center, and Aspect Consulting in the 2021 Long-Term Water Supply & Demand Forecast.

Photo Credit: Robyn Pepin, Aspect Consulting. Columbia River near Entiat

This mammoth water evaluation project – done every five years since 2006 – looks across the Columbia River Basin, which includes 34 eastern Washington watersheds. Hydrological modeling, economic modeling, regulatory context, remote sensing, surface water and groundwater monitoring and more all are studied to predict the future of water for agriculture, population growth, and instream flow health under a changing climate in this critical basin.

Forecast Insights for the 4th Largest Watershed in North America

Image Source: 2021 Columbia River Basin Long-term Water Supply and Demand Forecast

The Columbia River Basin is the 4th largest watershed in North America, running down from headwaters in Canada and mainly into four states – Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Some notable details and insights from the recent forecast include:

  • Wet months getting 15% more water and dry months getting 28% less water

  • Earlier planting dates and more heat stress during the hot months

  • 17% higher population growth across Washington state leading to increases in demand for residential water and hydroelectric power

  • Trends in groundwater levels across the last 20 years were predominantly declining across the basin. The steepest declining trends correspond with the most heavily pumped layers and areas such as the Grand Ronde aquifer in the Odessa Sub Area and the Wanapum aquifer in parts of the Yakima Basin and Horse Heaven Hills.

Expected changes that will influence future water supplies and demands. These expected trends inform the scenarios explored in the 2021 Forecast.

Graphic Source: 2021 Columbia River Basin Long-term Water Supply and Demand Forecast

A 2040 Water Crystal Ball: Water Retiming Means More Water Earlier

Among the many takeaways in this report is the impact of climate change on water cycles. Chief among those is the prediction that peak surface flows – that feed the historically typical April – October agricultural season – will begin earlier, thus leaving less water available later in the summer when demand for that water is higher. Snowpack – the Pacific Northwest’s natural water reservoirs – will likely melt earlier because of warmer temperatures.

This ripple effect will influence agriculture starting earlier in the growing lifecycle; instream flow challenges with higher temps for fish habitat; and populations in arid regions will likely be incrementally more dependent on groundwater to serve future water supply. Declining groundwater trends mean that alternative water supplies may not be available in some areas so additional solutions are needed.

Time (in years) until the average available saturated thickness has declined by 25% in at least one aquifer layer in each groundwater subarea.

Image Source: 2021 Columbia River Basin Long-term Water Supply and Demand Forecast

State-of-the-Science Research

Aspect teamed with the project team and the scope of the science and monitoring over the last two years is impressive. A team of scientists and engineers looked at remote sensing and telemetry data across eastern Washington; climate change forecasts; population growth projections; well logs; and water rights. Some of the months-long study details of that include:

  • Integrated hydrological, river operations, crop production, and municipal, domestic and industrial water demand modeling in 34 watersheds under 34 potential climate change scenarios

  • Groundwater level trend analysis on 670+ wells

  • Automated well log review of over 4,000+ well logs

  • Manual well log review of 300+ well logs

Learn more also at WA Ecology’s project StoryMap here.

The Nooksack Adjudication: A Pivotal Washington State Water Story

In Fall 2020, after decades of unresolved conflict, Washington State made a decision to initiate a “general adjudication” on a key Northwest Washington watershed – the Nooksack basin in Whatcom and Skagit Counties. This means that thousands of water right users will be formally evaluated. What does this mean? In a word certainty. Certainty for the State of Washington, Tribal governments, and the water users themselves. Why is this happening now? It’s the most common water story in the West – there’s just not enough water to go around.

The Nooksack watershed is one of two areas (WRIA 58, including Lake Roosevelt, was the other one) recommended for adjudication.

The Nooksack watershed is one of two areas (WRIA 58, including Lake Roosevelt, was the other one) recommended for adjudication.

Adjudication – What is it?

An adjudication is a binding court Decree by the state whose end result is a comprehensive inventory of valid water rights. Put in simple terms it means that an Adjudication Court, with support from the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), will methodically review all water uses in the watershed and confirm each water right has ‘valid’ water uses.

Why Now: What’s happening in Northwest Washington?

More rural development. Unquantified Tribal water rights. More water needs for agriculture in a growing part of the Pacific Northwest. Keeping water in the stream for fish. These competing demands often emerge as ‘whose water is this?’ battles in water rights. In Skagit and Whatcom counties, the adjudication is looking to bring certainty; however, there’s a lot of differing opinions on how to get there.

The Second Biggest Adjudication in Washington State History

Washington State is a ‘first in time first in right’ state for water law. Another way of saying it is if you were there first in using water, you are at the head of the line. That line can extend over a century in Washington state, and over generations if the water right passes on via property transfers. The Nooksack adjudication is potentially very big in scale.

The biggest one was in Yakima, and that took over 40 years to resolve including six Supreme Court cases. The schedule for the Nooksack will hopefully be more compressed, and Ecology plans to try out several time-saving shortcuts to make the process more streamlined.

Here to help as the State’s Preeminent Water Rights Firm

Aspect has consulted on literally thousands of water rights in Washington state in the last 10 years. We have also been involved in Nooksack water resources for more than a decade, including helping to lead the most recent watershed planning in 2021. We are looking forward to working with Nooksack water users.

Learn more here: www.nooksackadjudication.com

Kicking Off a Yearlong Look into Kitsap Peninsula’s Groundwater Supply

Over the next year, one 900-foot-deep well in Silverdale, Washington will play a key role to help forecast future water needs for Kitsap County communities. A unique year-long pumping test led by Kitsap PUD, with support from Aspect, will produce a treasure trove of water data to evaluate groundwater supply, pumping effects on other groundwater sources, and impacts to streamflows. The well will be pumped continuously at a rate of 1,000 gallons per minute and the effects of the high pumping rate will be measured across a 50+ well network. While pumping tests are a common tool in a hydrogeologist’s tool kit, the year-long length of this test is rare. “Hydrogeologist’s dream of doing this kind of aquifer test,” said Joel Purdy of Kitsap PUD.

Read more about this exciting project in this article from the Kitsap Sun.


Aspect Talks Reclaimed Water, ASR, and Walla Walla Basin at 2019 AWWA

Andrew Austreng, Jon Turk, and John Warinner will be presenting Thursday and Friday May 2 and 3rd at the American Water Works Association (AWWA) ‘River Runs Through It’ 2019 Section Conference in Vancouver, WA. Andrew will present on the Othello, WA Aquifer Storage and Recovery project; Jon Turn will showcase groundwater recharge strategies for a unique project involving reclaimed water in Kitsap County; and John Warinner will discuss challenges and opportunities of managing groundwater across two state lines in the Walla Walla subbasin.

The annual AWWA conference is one of the largest conferences for water professionals in the Pacific Northwest.

Meet Jon Turk and James Bush!

Associate Hydrogeologist Jon Turk, LHG and Project Hydrogeologist James Bush, LHG recently joined Aspect's Water Resources practice supporting our Seattle office. Here are five questions we asked to get to know them better.

Jon Turk - Associate Hydrogeologist

Jon and family kayaking near Elephant Island at the Bai Tu Long Bay World Heritage Site in Vietnam.

  1. Where are you from? If you’re not from the Pacific Northwest, what brought you here?
    I was born, raised, and educated in Ohio. I worked in Ohio for a few years, then transferred down to Florida for a previous firm. A few years in Florida was enough for the cravings of mountains and snow to take over. I’ve been in Olympia for about 9 years and consider it home. 
     
  2. What inspired you to pursue hydrogeology? What made you curious about it?
    My early childhood was spent on the Chagrin River, near Cleveland, with a short walk to shale and cliffs and fossils to collect. It was in the same valley that my grandparents homesteaded, and where my mother grew up…so maybe you could say I was born into it. Some of my earliest childhood memories are rock collecting along the river and sliding down the waterfalls. I started rock climbing as a teenager, and yet somehow started college as a pre-law student. After my first year, I switched majors and haven’t given anything else a second thought.
     
  3. What do you like best about your area of expertise? What excites you and keeps you motivated?
    It is not so much my area of expertise (quantitative hydrogeology), but consulting in general, that gets me excited. The creative and technical problem solving, rewards of a successful project and happy client, providing value to the communities I work in, are really the most rewarding parts of it for me.
     
  4.  What do you like to do when you aren’t working?
    Any sort of family adventure is at the top of the list. We try to raise our kids in a way that keeps them engaged with us, and consequently have dragged them through some incredible places way off the beaten path. We enjoy the outdoors as much as possible, climbing, cycling, kayaking, fishing, and traveling the world experiencing new cultures. I do some volunteer work with the WaYa Outdoor Institute, a non-profit summer day camp founded by my wife and friends, that combines STEM curriculum with outdoor adventure. I’m also an avid DIYer and roughly half way through a 5-year plan of complete home renovations.
     
  5. Where in the world would you like to travel next?
    The next “big” trip we are planning will be in summer of 2019 to Nepal, Tibet, and Sri Lanka. However, my dream trip would be to spend some time down in Patagonia, then hop on a cruise to Antarctica. I hope to see a narwhal at some point in my life—they really are the closest living thing to a unicorn you know.

James Bush - Project Hydrogeologist

  1. Where are you from? If you’re not from the Pacific Northwest, what brought you here?
    I grew up in the Boise, Idaho area. It’s a place I really love, and one where I felt like I had a lot of opportunities. I moved to Washington seven years ago for the opportunity to practice hydrogeology with some talented folks, and it’s worked out really well.
     
  2. What inspired you to pursue hydrogeology? What made you curious about it?
    My hometown (Eagle, Idaho) is fairly arid and very dependent on groundwater, so folks started to worry about water when the area began to undergo a population boom. I knew that I wanted to be a scientist who did work that had a direct impact on the community around me. Water is a resource for which there are no substitutes, so hydrogeology was a great fit for me.
     
  3. What do you like best about your area of expertise? What excites you and keeps you motivated?
    The wide range in scale on which my work has an impact. Water is so connected across space and time, and it touches everyone’s lives in so many places. It’s invigorating and daunting when I think about how my work today will affect folks potentially many miles downstream and many years into the future.

    Day-to-day, I love the investigative nature of hydrogeology. Working out how to evaluate a resource that is mostly hidden in an efficient manner makes me feel like Sherlock Holmes on a case. Bringing together sparse information to make deductions and piece together an accurate picture gets me out of bed in the morning.
     
  4.  What do you like to do when you aren’t working?
    My nights are usually taken up by rec league softball or volleyball. I’ve played baseball and softball since I was small, and being out on the diamond with friends on a summer night can’t be beat. I just got into volleyball last year, and learning an entirely new sport has been the best sort of challenge. I’ve also rediscovered my love of skiing the past few winters, and can’t wait until next season!
     
  5. Where in the world would you like to travel next?
    In all seriousness I’m hoping that commercial spaceflight takes off in my lifetime. Seeing the Earth from space, experiencing microgravity, and seeing the stars without the atmosphere are things I couldn’t pass up if the opportunity every comes!

Strengthening our Water Resources Services with Jon Turk and James Bush

Aspect strengthens its water resources practice with the addition of Associate Hydrogeologist Jon Turk, LHG and Project Hydrogeologist James Bush, LHG. Jon is a hydrogeologist with over 16 years of experience focused on quantitative hydrogeology for water, wastewater, and industrial markets for public agencies and private industry. He will work out of Olympia, supporting Aspect’s Seattle office as well as expanding Aspect’s capabilities for clients in the south Puget Sound area. James brings over seven years of hydrogeologic and numerical modeling experience for groundwater projects.

Jon Turk

James Bush

“Jon’s background and expertise are a seamless match with Aspect’s water resources client base,” says Tim Flynn, Aspect’s President. “We’re also excited to continue to introduce Aspect to all the south Puget Sound and western Washington clients that Jon has built strong relationships with.”

While at his previous firm, Brown and Caldwell, Jon led an integrated water resources management team providing regional leadership and national consulting for complex and integrated surface water and groundwater systems. He brings recognized skill in groundwater recharge, water supply management, wastewater reuse, and numerical modeling for clean water projects as well as site remediation support for Brownfields and Superfund projects. James also comes from Brown and Caldwell, where he was a primary technical contributor to groundwater projects, environmental site characterization, and numerical modeling projects throughout Washington, Oregon, and the western United States.

“I’m excited to join the Aspect team and proud to join such a talented group of consultants,” says Jon.  “I’ve always considered Aspect as one of the premier hydrogeologic consultancies in the region, with a strong brand that truly values both innovative and practical approaches to solving complex water resource challenges.”