Why a Record-Breaking Winter Doesn’t Solve Western Water Issues

Did this year’s record-breaking snowpack officially end the megadrought? (Spoiler alert: it did not.) What solutions exist to face the challenges of western water management?

 Animas River in Durango, Colorado flowing in May 2023

A Record-breaking Winter in Western US

It’s no secret that winter 2022/2023 was exceptionally snowy, and - quite literally - record-breaking in the western US. Throughout the winter we read news headlines that quickly progressed from “epic snow year” to “potentially record-shattering” and finally to “largest-ever snowpack”. These bold headlines in the media were validated by the US National Resource Conservation Service’s (NRCS) SNOTEL network, which revealed that  snow water equivalent (SWE) values sky-rocketed well above normal in nearly all western US basins. This positive outlook continues through late spring for southern states in the west — the snapshot from late May shows an above-normal snowpack for many basins in Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado.

Western US Snow Water Equivalent values are above normal for southern states in the West and below normal for northern states.

Digging Out From a Big Hole

This prodigious snowpack couldn’t have come at a more desperate time. Last summer, drought conditions across the western US reached all-time severity with numerous regions reaching D3 (Extreme) and D4 (Exceptional) drought stages. Many states experienced major losses to crops and pastures, and numerous water shortages and restrictions were put into place. With winter 2023 in the rear view mirror and summer just ahead, it’s difficult to imagine that, in just a few months’ time, much of the western US will return to a dry, drought-stricken landscape, but unfortunately, that’s the reality we face. Even a record-breaking snowpack cannot make up for numerous years of back-to-back drought conditions.

The tension created between the ongoing drought and this year’s snowfall demonstrates the challenges of western water management and how one good snow year can create an illusion of water security.

The Endless Winter Fights Back

While this extraordinary winter won’t completely erase the megadrought, the short-term drought outlook has improved significantly.  A drought summary posted by the National Drought Mitigation Center on May 23, 2023 shows a dramatic improvement for most of the western US over the last year, with most area’s drought classifications downgraded by one or more classes.

Changes in drought classifications across the US.

But as welcome as this improvement is, it’s going to take more than one good snow year to dig ourselves out from the deep hole we are in. Much of the US is still categorized as either D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1 (Moderate Drought) with some select regions continuing to worsen, even after this winter. The following two images show recorded drought conditions almost exactly one year apart.

Drought conditions comparing May 2022 to May 2023.

The New and Fragile Normal for Water Supply

Water managers rely on forecasts to predict the volume of available water supply for the upcoming spring and summer months. Generally, a bigger snow year means a better forecast and more water availability. But total snowfall is only one piece of the water supply puzzle, and other factors, mainly brought about by a more volatile climate and our changing society, can create additional challenges.

Some of the challenges today’s water managers face include:

  • Higher overall demand for water and more consumptive uses brought about by population growth.

  • Difficulty with the management of the timing of runoff (earlier melting) – warmer-than-average spring temps and more dust-on-snow events (which expedites melting) are causing severe flooding and other adverse impacts. Overall, severe runoff is less beneficial for water supplies as it overwhelms water storage infrastructure and is difficult to capture (something stormwater experts are grappling with as they look to design infrastructure for a changing climate).  

  • Thirsty soils – already dry soils take up less water than saturated soils, leading to more runoff and less water supply capture.

  • Previously depleted groundwater resources and surface water reservoirs – “digging out of a hole”.

Water Managers Look to Variety of Strategies to Harness Retimed and Excess Water

These challenges, combined with a volatile climate, mean that one wet winter won’t be enough, and leave water managers facing a difficult task.

Fortunately, solutions such as water banking, watershed planning, and aquifer storage and recovery (ASR), can be deployed to combat these challenges and capitalize on the periods of excess runoff water. And thanks to the unprecedented volume of available funding opportunities for water sustainability, conservation, and efficiency projects, these solutions are becoming more widespread and are proving to have effective implementation.

Aspect is heavily involved in water banking, watershed planning, and ASR, helping western clients with short-term and long-term water supply projects. Additional detail about Aspect’s past and current involvement with these strategies can be found below:

How SNOTEL Sites Show Our Water Future 2022 Part 2: Halfway Through the Water Year

It has been a rollercoaster of unpredictable weather in the Pacific Northwest so far in water year 2022, yet as of early May, the snowpack remains above normal at 107 percent.

Aspect staff monitoring water levels along the Cedar River in western Washington.

In early May 2022, we’re officially more than halfway through the ‘Water Year’, which starts counting on October 1. This is also the time we typically reach maximum snowpack depth and begin the period of springtime run-off as warmer temperatures and longer hours of sunlight transport the snowpack stored in our mountains downstream into lower basins. If you’re outdoors right now in the PNW and looking near a river or stream, you’ll notice a robust color and churn in the water that only happens this time of year– that is born from the melting snow rushing down into lowland regions.

How is the PNW Water Year Looking in Spring 2022?

Relentless weather cycles have guided our snowpack through periods of below- and above-normal times, resulting in an exciting and volatile track of the 2022 SNOTEL data. Let’s take look back at how we ended up here.

An early trend of warm temperatures and atmospheric rivers in fall 2021 delivered an abundance of rain across Washington state. However, the warm temperatures and exceptional torrents of rain stunted the initial snowpack development state-wide, bringing worries of yet another below-normal snowpack. By early-December, the snowpack was at a dismal 40 percent of normal across the Pacific Northwest Region.

Figure 1. Snow Water Equivalent in Pacific Northwest Region. The black line shows 2022 SWE trends to date. The green line shows normal “median” snowpack blue and red lines show the max and min (% median). 

Then, cold temperatures accompanied by snow in mid- to late-December 2021 rocketed the snowpack on a trend well above normal. On January 8, 2022, the snowpack was nearly 140 percent of normal – a dramatic comeback from the previous month. Still, the uptrend was short lived and by mid-January and into February, the snowpack growth plateaued.

So Far, Is the Snowpack Feeding Our Water Needs?

Part 1 of this blog series ended with snowpack right near historical normal values. Since then and into spring, we’ve witnessed wild swings in weather resulting in uncertain snowpack conditions. We ended April with colder than average temperatures slowly reviving the snowpack and bringing it once again back above normal.

In Washington, most basins remain above normal, with the central Puget Sound basin leading the state with the highest snow water equivalent values, at 136 percent of normal to date. Only the Lower Yakima basin is below normal, at 90 percent.

Figure 2. Snow Water Equivalent in Washington . As of early May 2022, most basins are above normal.

Not all regions in the western US are faring well in the battle against below normal snowpacks. Zooming out, the northern states of Washington, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, and Wyoming all have snowpacks near or above normal while Nevada, Utah, and Colorado face below normal snowpack and challenging hydroclimate conditions ahead.

Figure 3. Snow Water Equivalent in Western US basins. Most basins to the north are above normal while basins in the south continue to struggle.

SNOTEL Forecast Secrets Unpacked

This two-part blog series that put a magnifying glass on 2022 Pacific Northwest snowpack shows how water supply from our largest and most valuable reservoir is constantly changing.

A useful key to forecast the security of our water supply and adapting to the everchanging conditions is the integrated network of nearly 300 SNOTEL climate monitoring stations scattered across the state.

Forecasting Washington’s water future is vitally important as communities, farmers, industries, and habitat all depend on this resource when the ‘reservoir’ stored in the snow transforms into streamflow that replenishes river and groundwater basins

How 300 SNOTEL Sites Forecast the Pacific Northwest’s Annual Water Future – Part 1

Nearly 300 climate monitoring stations (SNOTEL sites) scattered across Washington state hold the data to our largest and most valuable reservoir: The Winter Snowpack. As of early February 2022, our water year began typically but has trended warm. We did get plenty of snow in the Cascades and Olympics – the critical mountain ranges that store our state’s water future. Read on for Part 1 of our two-part series, where we’ll distill the SNOTEL data, and then come back in the spring to see how the 2022 snowpack fed water resources in the Pacific Northwest.

A look at Mount Shuksan during some backcountry ski touring. This area around Mount Baker receives some of the highest snowfall in the Pacific Northwest. In the spring, the melting snowpack feeds major rivers in Northwest Washington, across Whatcom and Skagit County.

Snowpack is the Key to Fish, Flows, and Agriculture

Snowpack is vital to Washington’s water supply; we all depend on this resource as it piles in our mountains in the winter and melts in the spring to replenish streams and groundwater. Its impact is counted on by:

  • Farmers – To grow crops with irrigation water from streams fed by snowpack

  • Cities and Counties – To supply homes from groundwater replenished by snowpack

  • Industries – To generate hydroelectric power from rivers fed by snowpack

  • Salmon – To feed cool and clear water to critical fish habitat

Winters of below-normal snowpack add strain to the teetering balance of water supply and demand and challenge water managers throughout the state. Fortunately, this strain does not come as a blindside because of the SNOTEL network.

Basin-filled map showing percent of median across Washington State on February 1, 2022.

SNOTEL Surveys Washington’s Water Future

A growing network of nearly 300 climate stations (SNOTEL sites, short for SNOwpack TELemetry) monitor our changing snowpack reservoir in real-time, revealing whether the snowpack is below- or above-normal. This is managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, who provide this free publically available data. This allows regulatory agencies to make early decisions to manage the level of risk in receiving more or less water than planned for in spring, when the ‘reservoir’ stored in the snow transforms into streamflow that replenishes rivers and groundwater basins throughout the state.

Snow Water Equivalent – Not Just for Skiers and Boarders

Many people may associate snowpack in terms of snow depth. However, in the context of water supply to fish/flows/communities, of greater importance is the snow water equivalent (SWE). If you take a volume of snow and melt it, the volume of water left is SWE. SWE is a better measure of how much water is available in the spring meltout. The water content of falling snow can be highly variable: five feet of dry powdery snow is not equivalent to five feet of wet heavy snow.

How’s it looking? A Summary of Washington February 2022 Snowpack

Water year 2022 (‘Water Year’ always starts on October 1 annually, unlike the calendar year) began typical and uneventful; however, by mid-November, a battering of atmospheric rivers delivered warm and wet conditions to the state. While rainfall records were shattered (wettest fall in recorded Seattle history), warm temperatures quickly erased any progress of previous snowpack development and the 2022 snowpack (the black line) initially fell under the normal line (see green line below). As we crossed into December, the snowpack regained momentum, crossing above the normal line.  By January and into February, the state’s snowpack plateaued, ending right at the normal values, to date.  

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in Pacific Northwest Region. The black line shows 2022 SWE trends to date. The green line shows normal “median” snowpack blue and red lines show the max and min (% median).

As of early February 2022, the Pacific Northwest snowpack is 102 percent of normal. In Washington, the highest reading of SNOTEL data in the State were at 109 percent of normal in the Lower Columbia Basin. The Lower Yakima has the lowest reading at 83 percent of normal.

Using SNOTEL to See Our Water Reservoir Forecast

As the SNOTEL data illuminates, our snowpack story is fluid. This year, so far, is trending around normal. However, the value of having 300 monitoring stations is mountains of data to measure our state’s water health. This gets more and more important as the weather turns warmer and farmers, fish, and communities seek out the meltout from the reservoirs in the mountains. Check back in April 2022 for Part 2 of our SNOTEL water summary where we’ll look back at how our 2022 snowpack reservoir turned out.

Meet Daniel Chang and Ryan Mullen

Aspect recently welcomed Daniel Chang to our Seattle office and Ryan Mullen to our Bellingham office. Here are Five Questions we asked to get to know them better.

Daniel Chang, Staff Engineer

Yellowstone Grand Prismatic Spring! During my post-graduation road trip in Fall 2020

Yellowstone Grand Prismatic Spring! During my post-graduation road trip in Fall 2020

1. Where are you from? If you’re not from the Pacific Northwest, what brought you here?

I was born and raised in Johnson City, Tennessee, but I knew that I wanted to explore outside of the Southeast post-college. After spending the summer of 2019 in Seattle for an internship, I knew I had to come back to enjoy the city and all the nature the Pacific Northwest has to offer.

 2. What inspired you to pursue water resources engineering? What made you curious about it?

I have always been a swimmer, so I like to think my interest in water came from that experience in the sport. Spending 20+ hours a week swimming is plenty of time to think about where this tank of water is coming from, what is in the water, and the occasional thought of the absurdity of swimming in a massive tank of water in the center of cities facing drought. The interest grew through courses in college learning about global challenges with water access, supply, and quality—all of which I am excited to tackle in my career.

 3. What do you like best about your area of expertise? What excites you and keeps you motivated?

I love the general idea of working “behind the scenes” for a resource that the general population takes for granted in our daily lives. We often have the privilege to not think about where our water comes from, or what is in it, so I enjoy investigating all of that under the surface and at the source.

 4. What do you like to do when you aren’t working?

COVID proved to me that I am truly an extrovert. When I am not working, I love to be with friends doing anything from re-watching guilty pleasure movies/TV shows for the 50th time, cooking (and eating!) massive feasts, or exploring nature in my journey to become a true PNWer. For the immediate though, I am currently training for swimming the Olympic trials in June 2021 for a final swan song to my swim career!

 5. What five people would be your dream dinner party guests?

To get the perfect balance of conversation, comedy, and cuisine, I present my dream dinner party roster: Gordon Ramsey (to roast/maybe compliment my food), Meryl Streep (for the high class feeling), Adele (for some giggles and maybe live performance), Bill Nye (for the fun facts), and Mindy Kaling (for great laughs).

Ryan Mulllen, Staff Geologist 

Mountain biking the 100-mile White Rim loop in Canyonlands National Park, UT

Mountain biking the 100-mile White Rim loop in Canyonlands National Park, UT

1. Where are you from? If you’re not from the Pacific Northwest, what brought you here?

I am a Pacific Northwest native. I moved away from Washington after high school and spent the last seven years in southwest Colorado. I recently moved back here to be closer to family, water, and bigger mountains. 

2. What inspired you to pursue hydrogeology? What made you curious about it?

I grew up spending summers swimming on Lake Washington and skiing down the glaciers of Mount Rainier and Mount St. Helens. Spending time on water was always a big part of my life. It was not until I moved to Colorado that I began to understand how important (and scarce) water can be.

I studied physical and historical geology during my undergraduate degree and was fortunate to have gone to school in a unique geographic environment where 500 million years of geologic time was on display in the cliffs and valleys across from campus. I witnessed the distribution and movement of water across these landscapes and saw how seasons of extreme drought and catastrophic flooding impacted the community. 

3. What do you like best about your area of expertise? What excites you and keeps you motivated? 

The work is always interesting and varied, allowing me to be involved in many different types of projects. Hydrogeology encompasses a range of disciplines and each project has its own set of challenges that require innovative solutions. 

4. What do you like to do when you aren’t working? 

Generally, just about anything besides relaxing. I typically try to pack in as many adventures as I can after work hours and on the weekends. Lately I have been pursuing trail running, climbing, paragliding, skiing, and mountain biking. My wife and dog often get persuaded into joining my overambitious exploits. When I do find some downtime, I enjoy cooking, photography, reading, and sipping on a tasty sour beer while planning for the next adventure. 

5. Where in the world would you like to travel next?

My wife and I dream of touring Europe by paraglider someday. On the more practical side, we are looking forward to exploring the mountains of the North Cascades, BC, and Alaska, hopefully this summer.